Meatless meat, it turns out, seems less a world-changing innovation than another food trend whose novelty is wearing thin. “Before we were seeing this incredible growth rate. But when you lose that momentum, you lose your certainty around how big plant-based meats can be,” says Thomas George, portfolio manager at investment research company Grizzle, who in 2019 predicted plant-based meat could overtake 10% of the meat industry in 10 years if it could match meat’s prices. “The opportunity for this category,” he says now, “is more murky.”

Products from Kellogg’s Morningstar Farms, Conagra Brands’ Gardein and Nestlé’s Sweet Earth are all still selling, some well, but none are breakout hits.

What remains looks more like a niche category than a meaningful displacement of an entrenched industry. After Beyond, Impossible and their copycats spent years trying to seduce everyone away from meat, it appears their best customers are, well, the 5% of the population who didn’t eat meat in the first place. Kevin Lindgren, director of merchandising at food distributor Baldor Specialty Foods Inc. in New York, says more restaurants are ordering plant-based burgers simply to make sure they have something to serve vegetarians “that’s not a salad or cauliflower.”

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