Box Office: The Monkey Debuts Near Longlegs Record, Captain America Tracking Better Than Recent MCU Flops [Full Chart Update]

UPDATE: 2025/02/23 08:05 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN

The Monkey Exceeds Upper Bound Of Projected $13.5-$14 Million Range

This article was originally written Saturday AM and has been updated Sunday AM with up-to-date box office projections (in bold), a full chart, and further analysis.

The Monkey and Captain America: Brave New World are both topping the domestic box office chart with strong standings. The Monkey is a new release horror movie adapted from the Stephen King short story of the same name by writer-director Osgood Perkins, who scored a runaway horror hit in 2024 with his serial killer thriller Longlegs. In its debut weekend, its major competition was the Captain America: Brave New World release, as the new Marvel Cinematic Universe movie, starring Anthony Mackie in the title role, debuted at No. 1 at the domestic box office with $88.8 million the previous weekend.

Per Variety, as of Sunday morning, The Monkey is projected to debut at No. 2 at the domestic box office with a 3-day total of $14.2 million. While it does not quite compare with the $22.4 million debut of Longlegs, it is the second highest-grossing debut for distributor NEON, behind that previous Osgood Perkins title.

Meanwhile, Captain America: Brave New World is projected to maintain its position at No. 1 with a sophomore weekend total of $28.3 million. This marks a week 2 drop of 68% that somewhat avoids the massive collapses experienced by the recent Marvel flops The Marvels (-78%) and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (-70%), even though it holds a B- CinemaScore, which is the MCU's worst. Those 2023 titles had the two worst drops in the franchise's history and both failed to break even in theaters. Below, see the full domestic Top 5 chart for the weekend:

#	Title	3-Day Total	Cumulative (Domestic)
1	Captain America: Brave New World	$28.3 million	$141 million (weekend 2)
2	The Monkey	$14.2 million	$14.2 million (weekend 1)
3	Paddington in Peru	$6.5 million	$25.2 million (weekend 2)
4	Dog Man	$5.9 million	$78.7 million (weekend 4)
5	Ne Zha 2	$3 million	$14.7 million (weekend 2)

Elsewhere on the chart, there has not been too much movement. While Paddington in Peru has been bumped to No. 3 with a relatively gentle 49% drop during its sophomore weekend in domestic theaters, DreamWorks' Dog Man remains steadfastly at No. 4 with a 40% drop while Variety reports that the Chinese animated smash hit Ne Zha 2 is maintaining its place at No. 5 with a roughly 64% drop from its domestic debut.

However, Deadline contradicts that report, putting Ne Zha 2 at No. 6 with $2.8 million, below the Heart Eyes release. The Valentine's Day slasher is set to earn $3 million by the end of its third weekend in theaters. This is a 70% slump that makes sense considering the fact that the holiday around which it is themed has now been over for more than a week. Ultimately, it seems that both titles are still neck-and-neck, and their official ranking will likely not be known until Monday.

While horror movies typically drop 50% or more during their sophomore weekends, Heart Eyes had an unprecedented week 2 rise of 19%, which is the third best for any slasher movie in history.

Where both publications agree is the fact that the new Zachary Levi inspirational drama The Unbreakable Boy has fizzled out, debuting at No. 8 with just $2.5 million. It remains to be seen if the movie's glowing 95% Rotten Tomatoes audience score translates into word-of-mouth success over the coming weeks.

What This Means For Captain America: Brave New World And The Monkey

One Is More On Track Than The Other

Both titles are skirting the records held by their predecessors, but the first 2025 Marvel movie is in more of a dangerous position. Even though Captain America: Brave New World avoided a major collapse, its reported $180 million budget means that it likely needs to earn $450 million or more in theaters to break even. It will need to show a much stronger hold than Quantumania in order to achieve this, as that movie opened even higher with $106.1 million, dropped just 2% more in its sophomore weekend, and only grossed $476.1 million worldwide by the end of its run.

Because theaters keep half of ticket sales and production budgets do not include marketing costs, movies typically need to earn back two and a half times their price tags in order to break even.

Even though it debuted at No. 2, the Monkey release is on much stronger footing. The Osgood Perkins horror movie only comes with a reported budget of roughly $11 million, which likely places its break-even point around $27.5 million. Even if it doesn't have as strong a hold as Longlegs, which had a powerful viral marketing campaign, the Stephen King adaptation, which stars Theo James, Tatiana Maslany, Christian Convery, Colin O'Brien, Rohan Campbell, Sarah Levy, Adam Scott, and Elijah Wood, is still on track to earn a solid gross that could exceed $40 million at the domestic box office alone.

Our Take On The Weekend Box Office

Captain America Could Be Toppled Soon

At the rate that the Captain America: Brave New World box office is dropping, it's unclear how long it will maintain its position at No. 1. While the debut of The Monkey could not defeat it, as it continues falling, it will be more likely that a similar mid-level title could do so. Its third weekend will see it competing with the survival thriller Last Breath, followed by Bong Joon-ho's Mickey 17, then the action-comedy Novocaine. While none of those titles are tentpoles, if that CinemaScore begins to sink the MCU movie, any could become 2025's newest No. 1 release.

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Source: Variety & Deadline