The breadbasket of Europe, Ukraine has for years exported vast quantities of grain through the Black Sea. But after Russia’s invasion disrupted those routes, the EU stepped in, removing tariffs and establishing solidarity lanes, or alternative land routes that would allow Ukrainian cereals to reach other countries by passing through Eastern Europe. Rather than just transiting those countries, however, cheap Ukrainian grain entered their markets, and stayed—sparking an uproar among local farmers.

These fractures come as uncertainty shrouds the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the breakthrough wartime agreement that has helped drag down global food prices by allowing some 24 million tons of grain to reach the world market since it was signed in July 2022. Russia has continuously threatened to withdraw from the agreement to extract other concessions, and Ukrainian officials recently warned that the fragile deal is at risk of “shutdown.”  The deadline to extend the latest deal is May 18.

If Eastern European countries press ahead with their import bans, experts warn that Ukrainian producers—already struggling to sell their grain and facing lower prices amid shipping challenges and delayed inspections—will be the ones who are hit the hardest.

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