Tax on Sugary and Salty Packaged Foods in the Philippines Could Save Lives and Lower Health Care Costs | Johns Hopkins | Bloomberg School of Public Health
A new study led by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health finds that a possible tax on processed packaged food high in sugar and sodium in the Philippines could prevent nearly 3,000 premature deaths and avert 5,000 strokes, 14,000 heart attacks, and 22,000 new type 2 diabetes cases over 20 years.
The Philippines implemented a tax on sweetened beverages in 2018 and is considering adding this tax to unhealthy packaged foods. A 20% tax on sugary and salty packaged foods could also reduce health care spending by over $46 million USD over 20 years while generating $13 billion USD in revenue.
The findings were published online on August 25 in Lancet Public Health. They were also presented at the International Congress of Nutrition of the International Union of Nutritional Sciences in Paris.
The researchers believe this is the first study to estimate the health and economic impacts of a broad tax on unhealthy processed and packaged foods in a low- or middle-income country.
“Many of these countries are experiencing a nutritional transition, marked by rising consumption of ultra-processed foods linked to obesity, heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and cancer,” says Matti Marklund, PhD, MSE, assistant professor in the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health’s Department of International Health and one of the paper’s authors. “Our findings may have implications for billions of people around the world who are increasingly exposed to unhealthy diets and at higher risk of chronic disease.”
For their analysis, the researchers developed a mathematical model to estimate the dietary, health, and economic impact of a tax on the Philippines’ unhealthy packaged foods. They defined unhealthy foods as packaged foods with levels of sugar and salt that exceeded World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations. Examples of unhealthy foods included candy, cookies, salty snacks, and processed meats.
The authors say these findings support the taxation of unhealthy foods, beyond sugar-sweetened beverages, as an effective strategy to improve public health and reduce the burden of diet-related diseases.
The analysis also found that, unlike in higher-income countries such as the U.S., wealthier Filipinos consumed the most processed and packaged foods. As the least sensitive to price changes, they would pay the most in tax but see the fewest health benefits. Lower-income Filipinos, while eating less of these foods, are more price-sensitive and would gain greater health benefits while paying the least. Middle-income groups would cut sugar and salt intake the most, leading to the largest health improvements overall.
“This suggests that well-designed, nutrient-based taxes can promote health equity, especially when combined with subsidies for healthier foods, which could be funded through the tax revenue generated,” says Marklund.
Hungary and Colombia are among the few countries that have implemented this kind of food tax. The tax in Colombia—a 20% tax on packaged foods high in sugar, sodium, or saturated fats—went into full effect in January 2025 and was expected to generate around $270 million USD per year. Tax revenues have exceeded expectations by more than double, according to Colombia’s National Directorate of Taxes and Customs.
The research was supported by funding from Resolve to Save Livesand funded by Bloomberg Philanthropies.
