This 88% Movie Is A Cautionary Tale For Anora’s Oscars Frontrunner Status 20 Years After It Lost Best Picture
The road to the 2025 Oscars has taken some turns, with Anora now being a frontrunner, but it should take a look at another frontrunner from 20 years ago with a sad fate. The 2025 Oscars have been surrounded by controversy even before the nominees were officially announced. Among them is Anora, which was in the middle of a very specific discussion due to the reveal of the lack of intimacy coordinators on set. However, this isn’t an issue big enough to affect its chances at the Oscars and other awards.
Directed and written by Sean Baker, Anora introduces the audience to Anora Mikheeva (Mikey Madison), a 23-year-old sex worker living and working in a Russian-American neighborhood in Brooklyn. As the only one who speaks Russian at the club, she’s introduced to Ivan “Vanya” Zakharov (Mark Eydelshteyn), the son of a Russian oligarch. After some intense weeks together, Anora and Vanya get married, but when his parents learn about it, they attempt to force Anora into an annulment. Anora is now the frontrunner for the Best Picture Oscar, but it should look back at one of the biggest Oscar upsets.
Anora Is The Best Picture Oscars Frontrunner After PGA, DGA & WGA Wins
Anora Is The Current Favorite For Best Picture
Anora has gotten a lot of attention since its premiere at the Cannes Film Festival in May 2024. There, it won the Palme D’Or and received a 10-minute standing ovation. Since then, Anora has been a big contender throughout the awards season, winning several awards in different categories, such as the BAFTA for Best Actress in a Leading Role and Best Casting. However, there are four awards that have given Anora the upper hand at the upcoming Oscars.
Anora won Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures at the Producers Guild of America Awards and Outstanding Directing – Feature Film at the Directors Guild of America Awards. More recently, Anora won Best Original Screenplay at the Writers Guild of America Awards. Anora still has a couple more awards ceremonies pending before the Oscars, the most notable being the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Anora is nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role, Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role, and Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture.
Oscars 2025: Anora Has An Even Greater Chance To Win Best Picture After Its Latest Award Win
After its WGA, PGA, and DGA wins, Anora seems more likely than ever to win Best Picture at the Oscars, if it can beat Conclave and The Substance.
Just with its wins at the PGA, DGA, and WGA, Anora is the favorite to win Best Picture (and possibly more) at the Oscars, which is quite notable given its fellow nominees. Anora’s biggest competition is The Brutalist, followed by Conclave, while Emilia Pérez has pretty much destroyed any possibility it ever had of winning this specific category. However, there was another movie 20 years ago that was the Best Picture frontrunner after winning at the PGA, DGA, and WGA, but it lost at the Oscars: Brokeback Mountain.
Brokeback Mountain Is The Only Movie To Win PGA, DGA & WGA But Not Win Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain’s Streak Ended At The Oscars
Two decades ago, Brokeback Mountain was the big favorite to win the biggest categories at the 78th Academy Awards, having won many other important awards. Directed by Ang Lee and based on the 1997 short story of the same name by James Schamus, Brokeback Mountain introduced the audience to Ennis Del Mar (Heath Ledger) and Jack Twist (Jake Gyllenhaal), two cowboys in 1963 hired to herd a rancher’s sheep through the summer on Brokeback Mountain. Ennis and Jack develop a romantic relationship, but they are forced to be apart and eventually build their own families.
However, Ennis and Jack continue to meet through the years, but they always end up going back to their family. Brokeback Mountain was a critical and commercial success, and it received numerous nominations for different awards, with some of its most notable wins being the Golden Globes for Best Motion Picture – Drama, Director, Screenplay, and Original. After winning Best Theatrical Motion Picture at the PGA awards, Outstanding Directing at the DGA, and Best Adapted Screenplay at the WGA, Brokeback Mountain didn’t get the Oscar for Best Picture.
That year, the Academy Award for Best Picture was given to Crash. Directed by Paul Haggis, Crash follows a group of strangers living in Los Angeles whose stories collide in interweaving stories of class, family, race, loss, and redemption. Despite its controversies and backlash, Crash was one of the most nominated movies at the 78th Academy Awards, winning Best Picture and, with that, becoming one of the most controversial wins in Oscar history.
Brokeback Mountain Was An Even Bigger Oscars Contender Than Anora
Brokeback Mountain Had More Oscars Nominations Than Anora
What makes Brokeback Mountain’s Best Picture loss even more notable is that it was one of the biggest contenders that year, and even more than Anora. Brokeback Mountain had eight nominations, with Crash, Good Night, and Good Luck, and Memoirs of a Geisha receiving six, just like Anora did this year. The most nominated movie at the 2025 Oscars is Emilia Pérez, though, as mentioned above, its chances of winning the biggest awards have dramatically decreased due to its many controversies. Other movies with more nominations than Anora are The Brutalist, Wicked, A Complete Unknown, and Conclave.
Movie | Nominations at the 2025 Oscars |
|---|---|
Emilia Pérez | 13 |
The Brutalist | 10 |
Wicked | 10 |
A Complete Unknown | 8 |
Conclave | 8 |
Anora | 6 |
Dune: Part Two | 5 |
The Substance | 5 |
I'm Still Here | 3 |
Sing Sing | 3 |
The Wild Robot | 3 |
The Apprentice | 2 |
Flow | 2 |
Nickel Boys | 2 |
A Real Pain | 2 |
Despite being the most nominated movie in 2006, Brokeback Mountain only took three Oscars home: Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Original Score. Even though it’s the current favorite to win Best Picture, it’s hard to say if Anora could win in any of its other categories, mostly Best Director and Best Actress, as other nominees are clear favorites in those categories.
Why Brokeback Mountain Lost Best Picture
Crash Took The Oscar For Best Picture
A lot has been said over the years about Crash’s Best Picture win, and experts and critics agree that the Academy went for the “safest” win rather than the most deserving movie. The Academy has been accused of homophobia for not giving Brokeback Mountain the Best Picture Oscar despite being the clear favorite and deserving the award a lot more than Crash, while others have pointed out that the rest of the nominees – Capote, Good Night, and Good Luck, and Munich – also dealt with heavy subjects that didn’t appeal to Academy members.
The Oscars’ Most Shocking Moment Is Still Crash (Not La La Land)
Thirteen years on and the Oscars’ most shocking moment remains the night in 2006 when Brokeback Mountain lost Best Picture to Crash.
Crash is still considered one of the biggest Oscar upsets and one of the worst Best Picture winners of the 21st century, and Academy members changed their minds years later, choosing Brokeback Mountain instead (via THR). As for Brokeback Mountain, it has been celebrated as one of the best LGBTQ+ movies of the 2000s and is credited as one of the most influential movies in LGBT cinema.
Anora Should Be Able To Do What Brokeback Mountain Could Not At The Oscars
Anora Should Have A Different, More Successful Fate
Despite what happened to Brokeback Mountain, Anora should have no issue with winning the Oscar for Best Picture. Surely, Anora covers topics like sex work and social disparity, but these and many other topics aren’t as controversial among Academy members as they were 20 years ago. Anora has bigger chances of winning Best Picture than Brokeback Mountain did, and it could also take the Oscars for Best Actress (though Madison’s biggest competition at the moment is Demi Moore) and possibly Best Original Screenplay, too.
Our Final Predictions For Oscars 2025's Best Picture Lineup: Who Will Win?
The 10 movies nominated for Best Picture are confirmed, but only one can win the Oscars 2025 category. Will it be Anora, Conclave, or another?
Brokeback Mountain marked a first with its Oscar upset, but that doesn’t mean it has to become a trend. Anora deserves the Oscar for Best Picture as all its elements combine to make an engaging, funny, and emotionally heavy movie with incredible performances, great pace, and an original and grounded story. Even if Anora doesn’t take the Oscar for Best Picture, it’s unlikely it will end up with zero wins.
Source: THR.
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