Since 2008, U.S. corn exports to Mexico have been free of tariffs and quota restrictions thanks to hard-fought provisions in NAFTA. But Mexico’s white-corn farmers have been among the pockets of lasting unhappiness from that agreement, and they seem to have found a partner in [Mexican President Andrés Manuel] López Obrador. His administration has prioritized the country’s smaller farms, and a ban on biotech corn and glyphosate appears to be part of that broader effort. The cost, however, is steep.

A new study by World Perspectives shows that a ban on genetically modified corn would lead to an expansion in Mexico’s white corn sector but harm both countries. For Mexico, economic output would fall by approximately $20 billion, with annual job losses of 60,000. Corn farmers would benefit from prices rising 48 percent in the first year and about 19 percent over a 10-year period. But the rest of the country would suffer higher food prices, especially the 44 percent of the population that lives below the poverty line. For them, corn prices are the single largest indicator of access to food.

For the United States, the ban would cause economic output to fall by approximately $74 billion, and annual job losses would be approximately 32,000. U.S. corn growers would experience a loss of $13.61 billion over a 10-year period. The transportation industry responsible for getting that corn to Mexican buyers would also feel the pinch. The rail industry alone would lose $3.3 billion over the 10-year period.

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